Macro Monitor — 04 May 2026

Field	Level	Δ1d	Δ5d	5y Pctl
No prior snapshot — first run.

US Treasuries

0.44%

-0.27%

US 5Y0.40% -0.05%

US 30Y0.50% -0.42%

US 13W0.36% -0.28%

Curve 10Y-13W+0.08%

RBA Cash4.10%

US Equities

7,230

+0.29%

Nasdaq25,114 +0.89%

Dow49,499 -0.31%

International Equities

8,687

-0.49%

All Ords8,914 -0.46%

Nikkei59,513 +0.38%

Hang Seng26,216 +1.71%

FTSE 10010,364 -0.14%

Credit ETFs

$108.60

-0.23%

HYG (HY)$80.06 -0.40%

JNK (HY)$96.40 -0.44%

IEF (Tsy)$94.74 -0.25%

TLT (Tsy)$85.61 -0.01%

AGG (Bond)$98.90 -0.20%

Volatility

16.99

+0.59%

VIX 5y pctl2

Gold

$4,615.90

-0.30%

Silver$75.87 -0.11%

Copper$5.99 +0.92%

Oil

$108.15

-0.02%

WTI$101.68 -0.26%

NatGas$2.84 +2.30%

Crypto

$80,187.85

+1.95%

ETH$2,387.20 +3.06%

0.7211

+0.14%

EUR/USD1.1733 +0.03%

USD/JPY156.75 -0.14%

DXY98.13 -0.08%

CIO Signals

US Treasuries 10Y 0.44% / 13W 0.36%; curve +0.08% — policy-path read.

RBA cash rate 4.10% — Australian policy anchor.

Credit ETFs LQD $108.60 (-0.23%), HYG $80.06 (-0.40%), HYG/IEF 0.845 (95th pctl) — the Yahoo credit-stress proxy.

US equities S&P 7,230 (+0.29%), Nasdaq 25,114 (+0.89%) — mega-cap leadership intact.

International equities ASX 200 8,687 (-0.49%), Nikkei 59,513, Hang Seng 26,216 — cross-region tape.

Volatility VIX 16.99 (2th pctl 60d) — the realised vs implied tell.

AUD/USD 0.7211 (+0.14%) — China-demand pulse and USD softness reflect through the pair.

DXY 98.13 (-0.08%) — broad USD positioning anchor.

Gold $4,615.90 (-0.30%) — structural bid; tail-risk hedge held at target.

Brent $108.15 (-0.02%), WTI $101.68 — energy/geo right-tail.

Monday, 04 May 2026 · Evening Edition · Close of business Sun 03 May 2026

The day closed with the macro print at 75/100, regime Expansion. S&P 500 7,230 (+0.29%); ASX 200 8,687 (-0.49%); VIX 16.99; AUD/USD 0.7211. Gold/SPY 0.6384 (2th pctl) carries the bid; 10Y-13W +0.08% the drag. Macro Score 75/100 — Expansion.

Rates: US 10Y 0.44%; 13W 0.36%; curve +0.08%; RBA cash 4.10%. Curve shape and the short-end anchor remain the cleanest read on the policy path.

Credit: frothy at 95/100 (Yahoo ETF proxy). LQD $108.60 (-0.23%); HYG $80.06 (-0.40%); IEF $94.74 (-0.25%); HYG/IEF 0.845 (95th pctl 60d). We position public-credit risk to absorb a re-pricing event and resist incremental private-credit allocations without a 250bps illiquidity premium over the public equivalent.

International equities: Nasdaq 25,114 (+0.89%); Nikkei 59,513 (+0.38%); Hang Seng 26,216 (+1.71%); FTSE 10,364 (-0.14%). Cross-region breadth informs whether the leadership is broad or narrow.

FX and commodities: AUD/USD 0.7211 (+0.14%); DXY 98.13 (-0.08%); Gold $4,615.90 (-0.30%); Brent $108.15 (-0.02%); BTC $80,187.85 (+1.95%). AUD reflects the China-demand pulse; gold the geopolitical right-tail; oil the supply premium.

Positioning: Maintain core long equity with trailing stops; carry the gold sleeve for tail risk; resist incremental private-credit allocations at these levels. Macro Score 75 — Expansion. Generated 15:10 AEST 04 May — data source Yahoo Finance.

MEEKFM

What Moved Today

CIO Signals